Commentary adapted from the original SUMM.

This is one of the most memorable chase day’s I’ve ever had, and I ended up seeing some of the most amazing structure I have ever seen.

Started the day with a trip out to the Amarillo National Weather Service Forecast Office (many thanks to Meteorologist in Charge Jose Garcia who welcomed me for the first of three consecutive morning visits). Amazing to see that AMA NWS FO almost devoid of chasers… one day I too will have a laptop, the tool that allows the chaser to be fully independent! I chatted briefly with Chuck and Vicky Doswell and a father and son chase team from Oregon.

With sfc and mandatory maps in hand it was back to the motel where I joined John Moore and his daughter Beth to check out some model guidance (along with phone discussions with Al Moller and Lon Curtis). Along with John’s and Beth’s chase partner Jim Williams (Los Angeles, CA) the caravan included Greg Breneman (Chandler, AZ) and Linda Kitchen and Kathy Velasquez (AZ). Matt Crowther and Betsy Abrams (Weather Channel – Atlanta) soon arrived and we all left to head N to play the boundary in SW Kansas (we briefly saw Dave Gold/Silver Lining Tours at the Gas station before leaving AMA). I am not as inclined to caravan as I was in past, but wanted to today as I was going to into a data void (as everything library-wise would be closed on a Sunday) and many of these folks are old friends!

What followed became a ‘Tale of Two Chases’; the first with the caravan that saw the storms up in KS, and the second portion of the chase on my own in NW OK.

15z Surface hand analysis:

SW KS was the the target with good sfc dewpoints and surface boundaries. The day also advertised stronger deep-layer shear than in any of the previous days, prime lapse rates (again!), and the potential influence of an weak upstream short-wave trough. We headed N up 287 to Stratford and NE on 54 through the OK Panhandle, which was one of the few area where my cell phone did not work. Kudos to Canada’s Bell Mobility for having me ‘set up’ to work in such a wide area of the plains (I had a 1600 minute, all inclusive bundle in cheap Canadian Dollars)! It seems that some local cell companies just won’t participate in the roaming agreements. As soon as I crossed in to Kansas there was an immediate return to full service (I had a similar problem with one cell near Big Spring on 26 May).

Our caravan stopped for gas in Guymon – except I had to top up on oil (2 litres – hey, its an old, but reliable car) and didn’t have time to get gas – a circumstance that would greatly influence events later in the day! We headed up to Liberal, KS, got into chase mode (very near where John Moore and I watched the 22 May, 1995 supercell) and headed N towards Garden City, KS. I talked to Al Moller who insisted we adjust our target to Dodge City Kansas – I couldn’t catch why as our connection was bad – and passed this on to the caravan on the 2m radio. We headed E just S of Garden City and got onto US 50/400 and headed SE towards DDC. Disorganized cells were strung out from near GCK to N of DDC, and things didn’t look all that great (but it was still early!). During out trip to DDC I noticed a Kansas Highway Patrol car on the other side of the road – and he was just finishing up with an obvious chase vehicle. He saw me and the dash mounted video camera, wheeled it around and pulled up right behind me (I was last in the caravan). He stayed behind me for a while and after seeing no reason to pull me over turned off onto a county road (as we were traveling at the speed limit).

As we approached the SW part of Dodge City we noticed the cell to our east was becoming better organized and this lowering formed rapidly. As we were pulling into town right at 4:30 (2011 Edit – where the video begins) we discussed having to get south and avoid the ‘rush hour’ traffic. We turned south to literally ‘get the hell outta Dodge’! As we moved south and then east the clearly non-rotating lowering took on the shape of a large cone!

Unfortunately, I did not take any stills when I stopped as my meter was reading that I need to clamp/tripod and I did not take a chance shooting handheld – as I did successfully on my 24 May sunset shots and later the same day on the structure shots in NW OK (2011 Edit – the Pentax ME Supers I was using back then had a known and very frustrating issue with inconsistent metering – Digital is so much better!).  

I wonder if the increased social interaction when stopping in a caravan can distract one’s judgment – I also wonder if I and other chasers can be (even subconsciously) less vigilant vis a vis lightning issues when dealing with the social aspects of chasing when caravaning or meeting other chasers in the field. I should learn to better balance my natural gregarious desire to say hi with that of safety!

The tornado look-alike prompted over 150 calls to the Dodge City National Weather Service Forecast Office (which is between our location and the cloud lowering in the image) who were astute enough to keep things limited to a Severe Thunderstorm Warning (although someone apparently went ahead and blew the sirens in Dodge City). Kudos DDC NWSFO! 

I continued to SE of Dodge with the best cloud base rotation of the day evolving to our north. Of course ‘Murphy’s Law’ came into play as I had inadvertently touched the ‘Special Effects’ button on the camcorder as I made an adjustment while mounted on the dashboard. Ergo, the part of the chase with the best cloud based action is captured in ‘Mosaic’. You can guess the nature of my comments when I got to our next stop and took the camera off the dash to film and noticed the error. Why in tarnation they put this crap on video cameras I don’t know! I continued SE of DDC with John, Beth, Jim, et al.

While the caravan began to encounter other chasers and happily exchange stories, I began to become concerned about my fuel situation (I was now on 1/3rd of a tank and began to realize how far I was from a urban area – I really had it laid out for me as the caravan pulled into a town and the power went off just as I saw the gas station!)! As we headed W on US 160 from Ashland it was evident that the nature of the convection was changing. I really want to thank John Moore for patiently giving me all my potential road options over the 2m – thus allowing me to keep moving with my eyes on the road. I am now sure that if I had to stop and study my options I would have been ‘eaten’ by the impending derecho and missed the structure you’ll see below!

I decided on the south option down US 283, and noticing the evolution of the convection suggested that John et al do the same for meteorological reasons! They did and we stopped one last time together just inside the OK border – the shelf structure was beginning to get much more organized and was awesome (I think I shot some video)!

I chose Laverne, Ok as a target to get gas (as I had in ’92 & ’94 and hoped there were still stations in town) bid my friends farewell and got down to US 64 and E a few miles to head south again on US 283. As soon as I stated down 283 I began to notice I was not pulling ahead of the monster on my tail. Something hit my windshield hard from above – it was dark and made the glass shudder (probably a wind swept bird). I pushed hard to get to Laverne – the key was to get there while there was still power (if there was any to begin with!) but this derecho was still right on my tail (the speed limit in Oklahoma is 70 m.p.h. and that’s all I’ll say – this was now a safety issue).

So I get to Laverne and saw a station on the right with power on and an open fueling slot. It had old style ‘analog’ pumps that were FAST and I put $20 worth in with a perfect pump! I made the quick payment and made some quick comments about the impending derecho (now entering the town). I stuck with the speed limit in town as the storm started to envelope me, but floored it as soon as I hit the open road. I had never seen a storm move so fast. Over a period of about ten minutes I put enough distance between myself and the storm to start to gain some perspective. I had the ‘Mother of all Haboobs’ (to quote another chaser’s assessment) to my west and a HP stack of plates to my east! I never got around to photographing the haboob (I *may* have some video – I certainly have the memories!), but I did get the derecho depicted below.

South of Laverne (exact locations and all times for this sequence are pending video review and I can’t access the audio portion of the video with my current VCR – this will be rectified and updated in the near future). Looking east. I was awe struck!

Further south on 283 – still between Laverne and the Canadian river on US 283 (exact locations and time for this sequence are pending video review). This and the following two images were metering insufficient light to hand hold the shot. There was NO TIME to set up the window clamps and shutter release – this thing was moving that fast! As you can see, I held the shots steady and they exposed properly! Lesson learned again: always try to get the shot!

I will never forget this scene. These two images were taken just south of the Canadian River on US 283. Both were window clamped and cable released. This is as it was – all purple with some pink – and metallic and laminar (no alterations made to these images – they are true to the slides which were true to the sky). The image was photographed at approximately 1/4 to 1/8th of a second and the pull off I used offered the ability to circle around in my vehicle to determine the best framing opportunities.

There are other slides I took in this sequence and it is remarkable how quickly the structure changed from the image above. I am glad I found the spot to take this sequence at just the right time. And with all issues surrounding chase ‘hordes’, it was ironic that the most amazing HP structure I’ve ever seen was while back chasing alone (though Amos Magliocco, Chuck and Vicki Doswell, and especially Bobby Eddins were also on this ‘derecho that evolved into a spaceship’ for varying periods and had differing perspectives).

I really wish that the folks I had left 40-50 miles up the road had also had the opportunity to see this in all its glory this as well (at least they saw the very impressive early stages). Because I drive an old (but great!) car that required some extra attention back at Guymon, OK and I had no time to gas up at that time, I had to pull south and had the opportunity to be in position to see these images. It was then my skill as a sky observer and chaser and my wits that allowed me to judge and stay ahead of this monster derecho and get these images (especially in judging and dealing with the seven mile eastward jog that brought me into Arnett, OK, and into the edge of jaws of this monster!) . Of that I am very proud!

Again, thanks to AMA NWSFO for the maps and hospitality, to the early day nowcasters Al Moller & Lon Curtis, and to John Moore for the late day navigation help! It is my intention to make sure that images and video are forwarded to the appropriate NWS offices and SPC.

Both were tornadic, and both had similar synoptic scale upper-level patterns. Some of the differences included the mesoscale surface pattern and the reactions of the general public, both before, during and after the events.

This time we take a proper top-down look at the setup.

On the morning of the event there is again an approaching upper level jet max, rotating around a large, long wave trough:

At 250mb:

and at 300 mb:

At both levels the nose of the jet was a little further north than on 21 August.

By 22z the upper-level synoptic pattern evolved to closed Low located north of Lake Superior – so now there is a WSW upper-flow over SW Ontario (as opposed to the NW upper flow on 21 August)

We se a similar evolution at 500 mb, with a speed max approaching the Great Lakes in the morning from the NW (similar to 21 August):

but it also rounds the base of the closed mid-level circulation and produced a WSW flow over SW Ontario

A relatively strong WSW flow at 700 mb was in place by 22z, with indications of flow > 50 kts in S MI and S SW ON:

Decent SW flow also in place at 850 mb:

and an almost SSW flow at 925, out ahead of a sharp short wave trough running roughly from N Lake Huron – Chicago – St Louis:

And finally at the surface we see a good SSW flow with Dewpoints in the high 60′s to low 70′s over S Mi and SW ON.  Interesting to note that the more generally more tornadic-favorable smaller Temperature-Dewpoint spreads were in place over SW ON.

A surface short wave trough was in place with its axis running through  Lake Huron and the Thumb of Michigan:

So, aside for a somewhat similar upper-level synoptic pattern in the morning of the 24th, we see a much different mesoscale setup throughout the troposphere.  24 August was much closer to being a synoptically-evident severe weather setup.

This was also reflect ed in the derrived indices (contrast these with some of the values shown for the 21 August event).

Significant instability was in place over lower S MI and W SW ON – SBCAPE:

MLCAPE:

and MUCAPE:

Cape density was favorable, with 0 -3 km CAPE along and out ahead of the 925 mb trough:

Sufficient 0 6 km shear was in place for Supercells over S L MI and SW ON:

Low-level Lapse Rates were better than on the 21st:

…as were mid-level Lapse Rates

3 km Energy-Helicity Index numbers were impressive:

With similar values for 1 km EHI:

And lastly, 0 – 3 km Storm Relative Helicity was highly suggestive of rotating storms:

As were 0 – 1 km values:

So we had strong indication of severe weather potential both in the raw data diagnosis and with the derived indices guidance – this event was not going to be a surprise.  EC has a Tornado Watch out early and the media were almost in hype-mode (for Ontario) – people were aware (and it might be safe to assume, many in Goderich were scared).

As expected, there was rapid development of isolated severe storms over SW L MI.  One cell north of Port Huron/Sarnia showed rotation from some of the earliest scans and was TOR waned by the Detroit NWS office.

Here is the Detroit NWS Doppler Storm Relative Velocity (left), and Reflectivity (right):

Notice how the rotational couplet (as depicted by the adjacent red and green gates) and the reflectivity hook echo were in the NW quadrant of the storm!!  And storm motion for the observed Supercells was to the East – matching the Bunkers-Method predicted movement (see SRH charts above).

From a chaser perspective this was not good. Other storms formed over the lake and over SW ON and showed some rotation, but clearly this was the storm of the day, as it showed persistent rotation all the way across Lake Huron and into SW Ontario.  Here is the Mesocyclone about to move on-shore SW of Kettle Point:

This cell was latter confirmed to produce a 10 km weak Tornado that affected the small village of Narin, which is just S of Ailsa Craig – note the adjacent red and green bins – that is right over Narin!

I have yet to hear of anyone who even saw, let alone photographed this tornado – and there were a lot of folks watching the storm (other chasers, locals, and even the Canadian Weather Network) – it is possible that the tornado was rain-wrapped for much of its life-cycle (and the generally ‘messy’ reflectivity patterns exhibited by most of the cells would support this notion).

The cells evolved into a more linear mode over time and produced a lot of intra-cloud lightning, wind and, heavy rain.

Another Weak tornado was confirmed by EC, and it occurred, further to the East, near Cambridge, ON after dark.

And as for the chasing – out of two ‘big’ days in S ON terms that ultimately frustrated – I got one photo I am happy with:

Nothing like a Mammatus – Anvil Crawler combination!

Environment Canada did a good job – a warning was out with about ten minutes lead time, which is sufficient for members of the public to take action and responsibility for their safety, if they received the warning.  EC also had a Severe Weather Watch out that did mention a tornado was possible – but did not have a Tornado Watch in effect.

This was a day where the possibility of a strong tornado was evident, if you looked in the right places.  If you looked in the wrong places you could be easily have missed it coming.

I, unfortunately had other things on my plate and did not look farther than SPC Tornado Probability guidance:

and assessed that, since the front had passed overnight, it was a reasonable solution to not expect a significant weather event, and went on with other plans (SPC categorical guidance was suggesting the possibility of general thunderstorms for the area surrounding SW Ontario).

Finding The Needle in The Haystack…

Lets looks at this event in detail – starting with where NOT to look first:  Derived Indices!

Derived indices do have some guidance values in a balanced forecast.  Combined with a understanding of ‘what is happening’ –  garnered through a proper diagnosis of the current state of the atmosphere, and understanding of why it is happening, tempered use derived indices (i.e. within their known limitations) can help one arrive at a reasoned forecast for ‘what will happen’.

Lets start with something really blatant – like the Significant Tornado Index and hour before the Goderich tornado – both Fixed Layer:

… and Effective Layer.  Nothing happening here, feel free to move along…

Or Storm Relative Helicity at 3 km around the time of the tornado:

And at 1km – some higher values are evident (and potentially suspect, possibly skewed by a single ob), but not near Goderich:

1 km EHI plot shows no reason to suspect anything supercellular or tornadic (3 km was similar):

And the Supercell Composite Index suggests, well, no Supercells:

Old indices like Lifted Index, also suggest only limited instability:

And ML CAPE suggests around 500 J/kg (or less!):

If one were to do a proper surface analysis (or even just peruse the obs) in the hours before the tornado things start to raise flags for the existence of some necessary ingredients for a tornado – like a 64F Dewpoint at Goderich:

But that drops to 63F at 19z – and look at the veering of the surface flow to NNW and NW at Goderich:

And even down to 61F at around the time of the tornado.  Sufficient yes, but doesn’t really scream a strong, long-tracked tornado was imminent!

Looking beyond indices, we see both low and mid level lapse rates are only marginally favorable for Deep Moist Convection:

But things start to look a lot more favorable when we look at upper level flow:

At 12z, an unseasonably strong mid and upper Jetmax is seen rotating through a sharp upper and mid level trough seen here at 250:

Water vapour shows much the same, with a dark channel associated with the jetmax over Lake Michigan earlier in the day:

Advection of dry air from the NW implies the presence of an EML, though the weak lapse rates suggest that it has eroded.

00z 500 mb charts also suggest a favorable flow over Goderich, possibly greater than 50 knots:

No real weakness in the 700 mb and 850 mb flow:

An examination of Storm-Relative flow paints a much more favorable scenario – even suggesting Classic Supercell modality  – as SR flow was sufficient at all levels for supercells.

Anvil…

upper…

and mid-level SR flow should displace precipitation away from the updraft:

0 – 2 kn SR flow is sufficient and directionally opposite from the projected and observed storm flow:

This storm was seeing storm-relative inflow VERY different from the NW sfc flow at Goderich!

The 0 – 6 km shear vector is certainly favorable for rotating convection:

And even stronger from 0 – 8 km:

CAPE Density favorable for tornadogenesis (in the first three kilometers above ground level) in relativity close proximity to the storm at 19z and 20 z may have also played a role:

It was apparent that a Classic Supercell convective mode was in progress for much of the storm’s translation over Lake Huron, as evidenced by the Exeter, Ontario’s Reflectivity image (note prominent hook echo):

And just before affecting Goderich:

Photographic evidence shows a large tornado was in progress over the lake (tornado wrapped in rain/spray – corresponding withe the ‘ball’ at the end of the hook).  Image courtesy of Ruth Montgomery.  It would be reasonable to suggest that it was in progress for a substantial period of time before this image was taken by Ruth Montgomery as it approached Goderich:

The large tornado also continued after passing trough Goderich – image courtesy Joe Gowanlock:

And retained impressive structure as a large tornado – image courtesy of Danica Harvey:

Conclusions

Necessary and sufficient conditions for a significant tornado were in place as the afternoon evolved on the afternoon of 21 August, 2011.  Some of these ingredients may have been barely sufficient, and thus skewed various derived parameters that are are often used to suggest tornado potential.  The passage of a surface cold front would suggest, if one was simply relying on pattern recognition, that the probability of a strong, long-tracked tornado, was very low.  This events underscores how reliance on one or both of these approaches is inadequate when attempting to forecast Deep Moist Convection.

If one looks directly at the ingredients needed for significant Deep Moist Convection (Conditional Instability, Moisture, and Lift) all were present and sufficient before this event.  Additionally a shear and storm-relative flow pattern (along with low-level CAPE and low Lifting Condensation Level) was very favorable for classic supercells and tornadoes.  A focus on a complete top-down diagnosis of the atmosphere would have made this apparent, and a dedicated monitoring of the evolution of the atmosphere should have highlighted the potential for a significant event.

 Next I’ll contrast this event with the one that occurred just three days later…

I had seen Paul in 1994 and he was good, but the band he has had together since the early 2000′s takes this to a whole other plain.  Great passionate players that push Paul into playing his best and the sum of the parts is pure magic.

Click on each image for a larger view (when doen click anywhere outside the image to return to the blog).

As a guitarist I LOVE how Paul still uses his old iconic instruments – like his orginal Beatle bass!  Kicked off with Venus and Mars/Rock Show and then Jet:

Wardrobe here was Beatle-esque too:

Here using the recent “People” Les Paul (covered in cartoon images of people):

he was into it early on:

The Long and Winding Road:

Back on he Paul:

Blackbird:

and he realized at the end that he had revered the veresed – we didn’t care!!

On the Mandoolin for the new song “Dance Tonight”:

With George Harrison’s Ukulele for a touching rendition of Harrison’s “Something”

Paul then brought out his Epiphone Casino – the one from the Beatles days:

Back to the orginal Hofner Beatle Bass:

The Hits just kept rolling out – Paperback Writer:

Let it Be:

and Day Tripper:

Drummer Abe Laboriel Jr. and Guitarist/Bassist Brian Ray:

The sound was terriffic on teh floor at the ACC!

Yesterday, using the old Epiphone Texan he used to write it with back in 1964…

…was amazing!

Long standing tradition is that Paul plays Mull of Kintyre in Canada and is always accompanied by a local Pipe Band:

In this case the Paris/Port  Dover Pipe Band:

Eh?

What a thris for the band members:

Especially when Paul interacts directly!

Paul, Brian and guitarist Rusty Anderson kicking it out:

You could tell how much Paul loves this band:

Great vocals from all – Abe the drummer came down front to do background vocals on “Elanor Rigby”.

Rocking out Helter Skelter:

Everyone was so tight.

Abe literally and figuratively is a MONSTER on the drum kit!!!

A great mix of a John Bonham pounder with the finess of a Stewart Copeland:

Fans were so into this show from beginning to end!

Of course Paul brought his original Sunburst Les Paul.  Some quick math: only 1200 Sunburst Les Pauls were mad between 1958 and 1960 and those in good shape today will often go for $250,000.  There were only FOUR left-handed versions made during that time (this is one of them, John McEnrow has aonther) and is owned my Paul McCartney… value? Pricelsss!!

Locked in the pocket:

And pushing great soloing out of each other:

Pretty good player for a 68 year old!

A fantastic show!  Highly recommended if you get a chance – he seems to play a handfull of shows each year .

Sometimes an artist grows on you over the years – and sometimes it happens for no particular reason than the music is good and it resonates.  For me Bob Seger is one of those artists. I knew of Bob Seger early as older siblings of friends were into the “Live Bullet” LP and that made him cool.  But even back they I ‘got’ the music – a mix of straight ahead/heavy rock with R&B, Funk, Soul, Motown and country (especially later on). 

Live Bullet is one of the GREAT live albums of all time and it revealed the honest passion Bob Seger has for giving all on stage.  Great band have this trait and it tends to breed very loyal fans.  Bob certainly has those. Then there is the “Detroit” thing.  We here grew up with Detroit TV on cable since forever (and London, Ontario Had Cable TV since forever – 13 channels mind you, but almost everyone I know had it not too deep into the 1970′s, if not the very late  1960′s).  London Ontario “gets” Detroit and is still populated by masses of Tires and Red Wing fans. And Bob Seger used to play here . A lot.  I know people that saw at their High School back in the early days. I saw Bob back in the late 1970′s here and her was great. 

For a while I though he had ‘gone commercial’ with all the hits and the country influence (particularly the “Fire Lake” LP – I had liked country early in my life, and like it now, but HATED back in the early 80′s, LOL). Well bob’s commercial stuff and his country stuff are all right with me now and I was pleased back in 2007 to snag a stage-side ticket to see him at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on the day of the show!   No time to go home and get a camera so I only had memories of a show that blew we totally away with it’s energy, passion and musicianship!! Since then I HAD to see Bob again, and HAD to document it.

So fast forward to 2011 and Bob is on tour – I try for last minute tickets for Toronto  – no luck – no release of up-close seats on the day of the show.  SO eventually I convince myself I gotta see him in Detroit and grab a great seat for the Saturday night show of the three nigh Palace of Auburn Hills stand.  I am happy. 

Then Bob announces a London show – so I just had to see that one too! And, yes, I was able to document BOTH to my hearts content! Starting with Detroit – the home of rock and roll!  From meeting  such friendly people tailgating outside and then ending up back stage legitimately before the show (not a meet & greet, but walked inches away from Sax-God Alto Reed, and I said nothing to him as I gave him the benefit of doubt that he was in “pre-show mode”) it was awesome! Here are the pics – ALL of these will open to a larger image – just hit back to return…

 Bassist Chris Campbell, who has been with Bob since 1969!

More Bob.

He’s getting into it – so is everyone!!  The Detroit crowd is going bonkers!

Sax-God Alto Reed doing Timpani duties – note the slow shutter speed I as able to get away with!

Lead Guitarist Mark Chatfield (who, if you can believe it use to be in the 1970′s Cincinnati band “The Godz”):

Bob!

I was there because I wanted the Real Thing!

A very grateful Bob – he was blown away early on in the show as his 16 year old daughter joined the female backup singers while his 15 year old son joined the horn section on sax!  You could tell it was a complete surprise to Bob and he was visibly touched (as was his daughter).

This is during Travelling Man/Beautiful Loser – what a powerful song pair!

Drummer Don Brewer (who was an original Grand Funk Railroad member) kicked serious ass!

The very brief intermission allowed me to weakly recreated the classic Detroit rock ‘n’ Roll photo from the back of KISS Alive 1 – except with out people posing with band sings or having Red Hot Chile Pepper’s drummer Chad Smith in the shot:

Sax-God Reed doing Maracas duty!

And back on the BIG Baritone – now THAT is cool!!!

Bob!

You could really tell how much Bob really appreciates the GREAT band he has!

In-To-It!

At the Piano:

Turn the Page!!!

It’s great to see a 66 year old rock out like this!!

I heard him remark in an interview how the shows got easier as the tour moving along – now only if Bob could give up the cigarettes!!

See, Rock ‘n’ Roll definitely keeps you young!

Alto!

Backup singers Shaun Murphy, Barbara Payton, and Laura Creamer:

Don taking a well deserved bow!

Motor City Horns: John Rutherford, Mark Byerly, Keith Kaminski, Bob Jensen:

Silver Bullet Band member since 1980 Craig Frost:

Let it Rock (no he didn’t play that)!

Bouncin’ of each other musically:

Hey Dee-Troit!

Soul baby Soul!

Gotta see these guys while you can – I swear some classic rock from our era will be enjoyed hundreds of years down the road.  Its that good!

Against The Wind…

Now the perspective I had in London:

The singers:

Bob seemed a little looser at the London show – maybe there is a lot of pressure with those home town gigs with all the media and friends and family.

This was like “Hey London, lets have some fun!”

Passion crosses international borders!

Big Sax-God Alto Reed and Craig Frost:

Bob on the keys (loved how people too double duties, as I showed with alto on other instruments – Craig Frost played some B-3, as did one of the Horn guys, and backup singer Laura Creamer pounded the big bass drum on “Roll Me Away”):

Mark digging Craig:

Bob digging Mark:

More Sax!

Mark just had to let her know that he was in The Godz, and that “The Godz are Rock and Roll Machines” – She seems impressed!

Alto portrait:

And another perspective:

Wailing!

This band has really great chemistry!

I like this wide angle perspective:

London audience was great – Bob really appreciated us!!  Here is rhythm guitarist Jim Brown (who wrote “It’s Five O’clock Somewhere” – so touring for passion not money!) :

Pouring it on for the encores!

Bob flew home after each show and got the kids up for scool – what a transition that must be.  And great to see such a devoted Rock ‘n’; Roll dad!

To the band:

Night Moves:

Wide angle Chatfield:

Wide angle Sax-God Alto Reed!

Who is into it!

A lot!

I like this perspective.

What a great pair of show from a beloved artist who may be on the verge of retirement!

Pat Travers is one of my favourite guitarists!  What a treat to see him so close up at the 2007 London Ontario International Bluesfest.  Saw him in the early 80,s but that was after Pat Thrall and Tommy Aldrige had left the band and Pat was the only guitar player (most of his songs really do call for two guitar players).

Pat has always had a great touch as a guitarist: fast and aggressive balanced with grace and finesse, rocking balanced with melodic, and above all emotive!  He has played for so long, with so many people (he turned pro at 14 with Ronnie Hawkins band), he learned to work in varying styles – I think few players have paid more dues.

A guitarist’s guitarist, who put on a great set with enough of the old familiar songs to satisfy mixed with new. Powerful vocals are a PT trademark (click for larger image – back to return to post):

Emotive soloing (click for larger image – back to return to post):

This view is pretty much what the artist saw from the stage – a great day to Rock & Roll (click for larger image – back to return to post)!

Articulate soloing (click for larger image – back to return to post):

Guttural bends (click for larger image – back to return to post):

Going for what he knows with smokin’ articulate and emotive co-lead player Kirk McKim (a good Texan!) – (click for larger image – back to return to post):

Pat is very down to earth, kind, polite and it was great meeting him!

A great show PT!

Unequivocally, Jethro Tull are one of my favourite bands  – and this 2007 show at the John Labatt Centre in London, Ontario was the first time I had an opportunity to photograph them.

I first saw them at Maple Leaf Gardens on the “Stormwatch” tour – ironically they did the dress reversals for that tour (the last with “classic” line up) at the London Treasure Island Gardens, but didn’t to do a gig there. This JLC show also turned out to be the best one I have seen them do! Tull are a unique and often highly complex mix of Folk, Classical, and Heavy Rock. 

I recall an Guitar player magazine interview with guitar legend Richie Blackmore, also a huge, Tull tan, who summed up singer/flautist/acoustic guitarist’s approach to songwriting: “he gets so involved he write symphonies”. I don’t often point to YouTube from this blog, but one song might be illustrative to the initiated – a 1976 live version of Minstrel in The Gallery.  Getting beyond the odd ’70′s attire and hair, this song from Elizabethan-influenced folk to something that arguably is a heavy as some of the Thrash Metal that would follow a decade later (at about 2:20).  Also have to point out the simply amazing tone lead guitarist Martin Barre get from his vintage Les Paul – that is the Burst tone!!

Here are Ian and Martin onstage at the JLC – the clothes are different and the hair is pretty much gone – but the music is still reigning supreme! This was shot on an older point-and-shoot and the lighting in the JLC made it very challenging to capture images properly.   I still was able to capture some that reelect the passion and power of this extraordinary performance!

A passionate flute solo:

The other band members are all highly skilled (click for larger image – back to return to post):

I A great show!!

As with normal weekday life these days I arrived home situationally unaware.  Plus this was band rehearsal night. so there was no time to indulge in an array of weather data (and I am happy to report we nailed that night’s attempt at the full album version of The Doors’ “Light My Fire” – we have such a good keyboard player!). So shortly before I need to leave I hear…thunder! 

Got out to the Wx-Perch to observe VERY high based convection/precip to my NW.  Saw one CG pop out from the side edge of the precip core and got off a couple of wide angle images before leaving to practice. Here is an ultra-wide image of the storm (new feature – click on image for larger version) – the main precip core is roughly eleven miles to my NW:

Pretty good visibility for SW Ontario (this almost looks like some of the high-based stuff you would see on the high Northern Plains, say like E Montana). Here is an ultra-wide image of the sky to the SW – representative of the environment that this brief weak event formed in (click on image for larger version):

Lot’s of broken high Stratus – an environment that is rather stable looking – at least to me! Here is the relfectivity image from around the time the above images were taken (23z) – click on image for larger version (same for all that follow):

Notice the virga all around the area, as well as between the cell and my location (back dot), is doing little to attenuate visibility – it is the main precip core that stands out in the image above. So here is my take on what happened – from the bottom up… Here is the the 23z sfc map:

It is obvious that London, Ontario (CYXU) is on the cool side of a rather significant thermal and moisture boundary to the S and SW (which would be even more obvious if I had done a hand analysis of data from earlier in the day). The T=55 and Td=34 suggest a stable environment and a high Lifting Condensation Level. The mesoscale radar composite shows convection to the south, either on the boundary or in the warm sector:

So we have no explanation for the convection at CYXU.   Let’s have a little more detailed look at the 3-D mesoscale environment to try and solve the mystery! SPC’s objective mesoscale 850mb analysis shows the high sfc dewpoints we saw on the surface obs are associated with deep moisture which has advected up from the Gulf of Mexico, right up to Wisconsin and Minnesota. 

The dry side of the tight moisture gradient is about 90 miles SW-W of this convective event. Clearly this cell is doing its best to process what little moisture it has to work with!

Let look at Static Stability – and use MUCAPE in an attempt to find any potential buoyancy that might be associated with this elevated convection:

Nope – looks like all the instability is co-located with the deep GOM moisture to the SW-W-NW. This analysis suggests there is effectively no CAPE at CYXU,  though one could make the case that, where there is convection there is at least some instability – if that is the case, we can reasonable conclude that the CAPE is meagre! Let look at mid-level lapse rates:

The pattern of very steep mid-level lapse rate is also roughly co-located over the region of deep boundary layer moisture. This suggests a rather expansive region with an EML (Elevated Mixed Layer), with the co-located dry mid and upper-level airmass following a much different trajectory from its origin (intermoutain Western USA). 

Lapse rates around CYXU are maybe just slightly above dry adiabatic! The EML is pretty clear on the 00z Skew-T Diagram from KILX (central Illinois):

Though the strong capping inversion means that the potentially explosive convection will be easily kept from initiating to the SW-W-NW. The 00z KBUF sounding shows a very stable environment, and one could suggest one similar to that at CYXU:

CAPE shows up at 38 J/Kg – could London have a similar amount?  The real story only comes to light when we examine the atmosphere at upper and mid levels – 300mb: A subtle shortwave trough appears to be rotating around the upper level ridge, with its axis running SSW- NNE over Sault Ste. Marie (MI/ON, take your pick!). 300 mb analysis:

The 500 mp chart show a similar feature – with the mid level short wave trough just a little bit downstream:

A look at the 700 – 500 mb Omega suggests upward motion associated with this feature and the upward motion is destabilizing the airmass below (as well as weakening the cap) :

A look at Water Vapour imagery also shows the effects of the short wave trough – note the small dark region near the Thumb of Michigan:

It is likely that the lift from the mid-upper shortwave trough produced a sufficiently destabilizing and cap-weakening response to initiate elevated convection, that resulted in me seeing a Cloud to Ground bold, and getting a couple of pretty images!! One hopes that a proper diagnosis of the state of the atmosphere before the event would have helped lead to a decent forecast. 

A proper top-down subjective analysis (as opposed to the bottom-up approach I chose for effect – and preferably an analysis that was hand-drawn) would have hopefully highlighted the short-wave trough riding around the mid/upper ridge. Ideally, that would have suppoted a 4-D mental model of the day’s setup which could then open the door to a forecast that included some probability of  convective activity near CYXU. Hopefully the next SUMM will be for something a little more significant!

Had a quasi-conical, but scuddy non-rotating lowering just below a linear updraft base, so it was time to grab the camera!  By the time I got back the lowering was gone and I was treated to a nice sculpted vault behind the leading shelf cloud – so at least I did get a nice structure shot out of what was going to be a very fleeting ‘low-end’ (but pretty!) event.

I like the WX-Perch!  Now if this turns out to be an active season up here it will be tempting to stay put for any London events (certainly for anything outflow dominant) – or get back to the WX-Perch if I’m out chasing and it becomes apparent that it will be a “London” event – which would have the benefit of not trying to chase in an urban environment.  Obviously, this isn’t a dilemma for events further from home.

Because we have had so little photogenic weather here recently (and we are entering the convective season), I thought this event might be an opportunity to improve the blog workflow and add in thumbnails for radar/other charts.  These will link to to full size images and will enhance the ability to discuss and review events. This was also an opportunity to get more familiar with the archiving of Mesoanalysis data at the Storm Prediction Center’s website (thanks SPC, its nice to know these are available if I don’t archive data during an event). 

That led to the discovery of how to process .gif files in Photoshop CS3. Turns out that .gif files are rather tricky to process in Photoshop, so I will note the steps at the end of this post for anyone else interested in doing the same. So, going forward, this blog will include thumbnails of radar and charts of various parameters where they add to the discussion of an event. To navigate these simply click on the thumbnail and it will open the full size image.  Click ‘Back’ in your browser to return to the blog.  I think that is a better approach than opening in a new tab – feel free to let me know your thoughts! Here is a .05 degree Reflectivity image from the Detroit NEXRAD of the cell at about the time I took the above picture:

The black dot on the full-size image denotes my location.  The precip core  is off to the WNW while the updraft feature I photographed (to my SW) is out ahead to the SE of  the reflectivity.  It is so nice to be able to see a cell first hand and at the same time correlate with a quasi-real-time radar image!

This weak cell developed in an environment very weak upper level flow (not shown), and out ahead of both surface and mid-level short-wave troughs over Michigan, as shown on the 21z 500mb

mesoanalysis:

,,,and on the SPC surface mesoanalysis – note the Sudbury, ON – Lansing MI short wave trough, and a SW sfc flow over SW ON:

Surface obs showing presence of fairly low dewpoints (45F at London):

along with zero Surface Based CAPE (not shown), and about 500 Jkg of Most Unstable CAPE:

…suggests we have a case of Elevated Convection (not really a surprise):

The lack of any significant 0-6 km shear also accounts for the short duration of the event (and rapid evolution to outflow dominance):

When the core arrived at my location (again the black dot on the full size version of the reflectivity image) we were treated to a nice fall of pea-sized hail!

I can enjoy a low-end convective event that offs up some photogenic moments and it is nice do get a routine down to do some improved post-mortem discussion  – now bring on some REAL storms!!

******************************* Here is the process to handle GIF files in PS: 1. Open .gif in Firefox 2. Copy 3. Open New Photoshop Document in CS3 (default 1000 X 750 pixels works fine) 4. Paste gif into document 5. Right click Layer 1 > Blending Options… 6. Move “This Layer” slider from 0 to 1. 7. CTRL-SFT-E to flatten 8. Image Resize to taste and Save As .gif (GIF Options Normal).

***************** EDIT – 5-12-2011 AN even better approach is to create an PS Action that captures: 1 Image > Mode > RGB 2. Flatten Image (right click over Layer > Flatten) 3.  Image Size to taste 4. Save As: GIF To do all the GIFs in a given folder go: File > Automate > Batch where the Action is the one created for this task;  in/out folders are chosen (I used same for both);  check “Override Save As Commands”,  and “document name +” _small” + extension” Click OK and it will do all the GIFs in the folder with re-sized versions also saved a GIFs and with the suffix ‘small’.

Interesting weather afternoon!! Shortly after 1930z (3:30 pm EDT) I noticed what looked like mamatus clouds to the W and SE of my location in W London, Ontario.  Grabbed the camera and started shooting.

First batch had to have White Balance post-processed in CS3 (to match what I was seeing as best I could), as I had shot a concert with the 50D the previous night and had both the WB and Exposure Compensation set accordingly and not changed them at the end of the night! These were all shot with the ultra-wide Tokina 11-16 mm.  Looking SSW:

Set the in-camera WB settings for current conditions…

It was reasonable to assume that the mammatus were associated with convective activity, and a look at the Detroit NEXRAD reflectivity confirmed the assumption.  The red dot approximates my location.

Switched over to the 18-55 – looking SSW:

Looking SW:

It was fascinating to see the mammatus expand in size, and in some cases appear to have virga under some of them – at which point I would no longer classify them as mammatus. 

Looking W:

It was also quickly apparent that the the virga was actually precip was reaching the ground to my WSW – in the form of large snow flakes! 

Snowburst!!

We were soon experiencing a moderate snowfall, and I did hear a rumble of thunder at 1904z! This was an interesting event – I have never seen mammatus precede a precip event, and I have not seen mammatus with snow before. 

Also I have never seen mammatus like features grow so rapidly and evolve to significant precip reaching the surface. It would be great to understand why this event occurred – I wonder if it was related to the specific thermodynamics and kinematics at and around the lifted condensation level… .