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Firstly Kudos to EC staff for being on top of things and to fellow Chaser Mark Robinson for raising awareness with the media of the Outbreak warning problem in Ontario.
My opinion is that the current best practice is the Integrated Warning System concept championed by former NWS forecaster Al Moller (one of the greatest forecasters EVER!).
The IWS recognizes the necessity and interdependence of:
- Adequate technology and situationally-aware competent staffing at NWS/EC offices.
- Ground Truth availability from competent and reliable Chasers/Chaser-Spotters/Spotters.
- Prompt communication to competent mass-media with the appropriate mandate and ability to deliver the relevant meteorological information to the public.
- A competent public who takes responsibility for understanding the range of threats possible in a given region (and events likely/possible on a *meteorological* time-scale in that region), and having a plan they can use almost instinctively.
EC staff covered off the first point on this event, getting warnings out early (though, and I know some disagree, I personally contend that there should be more offices in Canada with more staff and more of an emphasis on old-school analysis/diagnosis). Chasers, Chaser-Spotters, and Spotters are usually out in sufficient numbers that there will usually be enough willing help with Ground Truth on most events (and I think Chasers have a duty to give back by reporting events when possible/feasible).
Canadian Broadcast Media seems focused on only the bottom line and, from my perspective, not interested in staffing with people who truly understand severe-wx, and in most cases are unwilling to react to break away from scheduled programming (though it appears CP24 gave this event more live coverage than is normal up here). Going “wall-to-wall” is common with US Plains stations – even to the point of *over* hyping events. My impression is the TV industry here feel a automated crawl system is sufficient – I disagree!
Even the Michigan stations we get from Detroit are an order-of-magnitude more serious about covering weather than Ontario’s local stations (and they are usually not too bad with hype!). Canadians need to be educated on the range of threats possible in a given region (and what is normal/likely on a *meteorological* time-scale in that region). There may be an opportunity for some TV formats to move in the direction I allude to above (seems to suit the CP24-style format), but I have some doubts about the public ‘getting it en masse’ (Idol/UFC seems to takes precedence!).
I still think “we” (whoever “we” are) should continue to try to increase threat awareness/knowledge of how to react – over time more and more will absorb it if the effort is appropriate and sustained. Technology based delivery (Twitter/overhead signs/etc) can certainly augment dissemination (but can’t replace an event-reactive media and a ‘with it’ public). I also think we need sirens in all urban area (again, used appropriately).
That being said, the 7 August, 1979 cluster outbreak of long track violent tornadoes (with at least TWO as bad as you ever get in Texas/Oklahoma) east of Woodstock, Ontario is NORMAL and COMMON for Southern Ontario on a Meteorological time-scale.
We are overdue for a ‘big one’, and there are more of us in more places/larges cities. If that even were repeated today, but in a heavily urbanized area at the wrong time (large groups in buildings/snarled traffic) we could easily see THOUSANDS killed with one event.
Just sayin’.
